Recently there increases the number of publications in mass-media and in scientific literature, which doesn´t correspond to base requirements of Professional code of sociologist and which doesn´t answer the existed ethic norms. There decreases the level of trust of population to the presented information. Specialists at the sphere of sociology often present the results of their researches, which inadequately reflect actual condition of concern. [1] For the solving of this problem many scientifically-methodical advices, sociological centers, laboratories suggest while the development of program of research using the methods and technologies, at the base of which there exist sources of verification.

At actual period at foreign science there is widely spread the system of research Foresight. Appeared near 30 years ago this technology became one of the base instruments of innovative development. About its effectiveness there testifies the degree of development of such countries as USA and Japan, which use this system during far not one decade.

Modern science singles out a majority of definitions of this term, for example, contained at the fundamental two-volume edition UNIDO:

«Foresight is the systematical attempt to look in the long-term future of science, technology, economic and society with the aim of identification of the zones of strategic research and appearance of ancestral technologies, which are bright to bring the most big economical and social benefits» [2]. The deputy of director of the Institute of statistic researches and economy of knowledge State University - High School of Economics Alexander Sokolov, at his speech at the scientifically-research seminar «Perspectives of civil society in Russia: problems of estimation and choice», cited one of the most spread definition of this method: «Foresight is the systematical process of estimation of middle and long-term horizons of development that is based on the participation of all interested parties, that is directed to the making of actual decisions and mobilization of combined actions» [3]. Foresight was projected as the program for the development of perspectives of scientifically-technical sphere. Its evolution promotes the use of system for different ecological and socially-economical aims.

From the ninetieth years of last century Foresight started to be used at the socially-political sphere. Last decade there are actively carried out the projects of cities: Dublin, Barcelona, Stuttgart; projects of social development of countries: Great Britain, Austria, Finland, France. Foresight becomes an instrument for forming of social reality. Countries that pretend to the leadership at the modern world began to work to the creation of their social future and began to transform outdated institutes, through the way of «prediction».

Properly, Foresight is not a method or technology, Foresight is the practice of use of all existed methods of research, development of programs of development, researches of future, prognostic etc in compliance with the defined principles.

The aim of Foresight consists in the idea that to promote forming of necessary potential (scientific, innovative, technological, human), and also new nets between different structures, which were able to develop and realize strategies of preemptive character [4].

There exist several types of Foresight, which in compliance with the degree and sphere of use subdivide into: national, interregional, corporative, regional, sectoral, subject and other. Depending on classification type system provides for the choice of defined method of prediction and research: brainstorm, expert questionnaires; method of Delphi; method of critical technologies etc).

This system can be used as the technology of any sociological research, depending on stated tasks. If the base aim of work is not the solving of actual problem (creation of recommendations, prognoses etc), it´s possible to use only some methods of foresight for study of social opinion. While the development of program of sociological research with the use of system Foresight, it´s necessary qualitative analysis of stages (table 1) with the taking into account of possible methodological problems.

While the foresight projecting and the choice of technology it´s necessary to take into consideration factors, which have influence on the object of research, for example: mentality of population, regional development of economy, industry and culture, development f infrastructure of city etc, just on them there will depend success and qualitative effectiveness of work.

Table 1. Base stages of forming of program of research

The structure of standard sociological research	Foresight system
preparation of research: defining of problem, hypotheses, aim, tasks, object and subject of research, methodology and plan; collection of initial sociological information; preparation for the treatment of materials of research at computer; the analysis of information, preparation of account up the sociological research, conclusions and recommendations.	analytic stage; defining of problem, hypotheses, aim, tasks, object and subject of research, the analysis of choice of methods, expert group; research of perspectives of development, introduction of Foresight methods, work with stakeholders, the organization of work of informative site; scientific platform: the development of strategies, mechanisms, technologies.

At science there are known a lot of examples of use of methodology of Foresight with regard to the studying of society. The striking example is carried out fundamental research of civil society of Laboratory of research of civil society (LRCS) under the State University - High School of Economics. For reaching of base tasks and exactly: study of approaches to the defining of perspectives of civil society and preparation of some pilot project at the base of methods of Foresight, there were used questionnaires, method-Delphi, «staging», «mapping».

The director of center «The voice of nation» of the Institute of sociology RAN Alexander Kinsburgsky estimated presented project «as successful experience». «In my opinion, this is the most adequate method», - he noted. This method is adequate because it allows considering civil society at all forms of self-organization of population. Secondly the methodology of Foresight allows considering civil society at wide context, including political, economic, social and international aspects» [5].

While the analysis of this project famous political scientist Joseph Diskin noted particularly, that in that case we «can speak about the success of research project, because it´s necessary to enrich the arsenal of research methods of civil society, which is rather many-sided and multipleaspect. And it´s good when while its research there are used different methods». But there are problems. «The method of Foresight is used there where at the big degree the object situated at the arms of direction. They are scientifically-technical programs, built programs, where self-organizing, genetic part doesn´t define the destiny of the development of the process. But civil society by it means is an object, which is in very high degree develops at the expense of its inside, genetic factors». This, in the scientist´s words, «fragile organism» can be easy ruined by the way of "normative influences» [6].

If we compare Foresight with other innovative systems of sociological research, that its advantages don´t raise doubts, because it allows:

• Firstly, to accumulate expert assessments of big number of experts, involving ito a process of collection of sociological information.
• Secondly, to bring in the element of discussion between the experts.
• Thirdly informative openness and availability for all concerned persons, at the all stages of research.
• Fourthly to carry out the comparative analysis by the wide expert circle of used methods and results, what excludes the subjectivity of methods.
• Fifthly to make under the results of research concrete decisions and predictions to the long-term perspective, to reveal problem places into a forming of future.

At the sight of above-stated the system of Foresight is an effective form of qualitative sociological research, at the base of which there lays complex analysis of social and expert opinion, studying of perspectives and tendencies of stated range of problems, and scientifically-based strategy of development.

References

1. Memorandum about base principles of reporting of sociological information // http://www.kasparov.ru/note.php?id=473C33E285F30.
2. UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. - Vienna, 2005. - Vol. 1.
3. Seminar «Perspectives of civil society in Russia: problems of assessment and choice» // http://www.hse.ru/lingua/fr/news/recent/6228644.html.
4. Gaponenko N.V. Foresight. Theory. Methodology. Experience: monography / N.V. Gaponenko. - M., 2008. - P. 71.
5. Seminar «Perspectives of civil society in Russia: problems of assessment and choice» // http://www.hse.ru/lingua/fr/news/recent/6228644.html.
6. Ibidem.

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The work was submitted to international scientific conference «Actual problems of science and education», (Cuba), 20-30 March, 2010, came to the editorial office 15.03.2010.